Fed hawkishness
Measuring the momentum of US interest rate expectations and Federal Reserve policy sentiment from global news flow.
Current Status
The Fed hawkishness gauge is currently at 57, which is near a typical day of 50, and little has moved it over the last 24 hours. This normal state has persisted for 1 day, following a gradual cooling from the caution levels observed earlier in the week when the gauge peaked at 71 on October 29.
How the Gauge Works
Flightdeck reads global finance news every minute and translates it into a 0–100 gauge. A value of 50 represents a typical day. Values above 60 indicate caution, and those above 80 signal warning. The gauge rises when news suggests interest rates will stay higher or rise, and falls when news points toward cuts or easing. Every headline is processed through three yes/no questions answered by our classification model.
Explore the Mechanism
See how our classification model evaluated real headlines from today's news flow. Select a headline below to inspect the three-question pipeline, the model's probability scores, and the resulting impact on the gauge.
Model Classification Analysis
Is this about the US Federal Reserve, its officials, or US interest rate policy?
Does this suggest US interest rates will stay higher or rise (a more hawkish Federal Reserve)?
Does this suggest US interest rates will be cut or monetary policy will ease (a more dovish Federal Reserve)?
Highly relevant to US interest rate policy, but the model did not detect a strong directional bias. No gauge adjustment was made.